Polls: A Closer Look to the Future of Spain After Elections

Spain is about to face general elections next November 10th, fourth round in four years, after the absence of political agreement back in September didn't allow Pedro Sanchez to assume the presidency. It's the first time something like this takes place in the history of Europe.

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This period of political instability was defined by the rise of new political forces that broke the historic rivalry of power between PSOE and PP: the political parties Unidas Podemos, Ciudadanos and Vox.

Regarding the upcoming events this weekend, Spanish media have published the results of different pollsters on what could be Sunday's results. For example, the local journal El Pais reported that a statistical analysis positions PSOE at the top of the podium with a high probability of obtaining aproximately 86 percent of the votes, followed closely by PP with 83 percent and Vox with 70 percent.

To rule with majority over Congress, a party is required to get 176 seats. Polls show PSOE may earn an average of 117 positions, PP 92, Vox 46, Unidas Podemos 35 and Ciudadanos 18.

In adition, El Periodico throws Pedro Sanchez as a possible winner too. This outlet presents the progressive bloc formed by PSOE- Unidas Podemos- Más País would add 163 deputies, in which case Sanchez would again need the support of the Catalan pro-independence parties to be president. The triple right-wing coalition formed by PP-Citizens-Vox, however, would be far from the absolute majority, as it would add 148 seats.

According to this predictions, numbers to achieve governance will be more complicated than six months ago, local newspaper El Mundo reported. Now the possibility of a government joint between PSOE and Ciudadanos disappears, and the only viable coalition in statistical terms would be one of the leftist forces: PSOE, Unidas Podemos and Más País, together with Esquerra Republicana de Catalonia or an agreement between socialists and popular parties.

However, the most punished and disadvantaged party will be the Ciudadanos party.

 

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