Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Latest: Trump says no agreement yet
- Trump: we’ll sign deal in the US
- Japan to draw up stimulus plan
- Introduction: White House split over tariffs?
- Chinese exports fell 0.9% in October
- Analysts: It could have been worse
Finally, here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on Donald Trump’s renewed fanning of the trade war with China.
Ding ding! The London stock market has closed in the red, after Trump deflated hopes that a trade deal was close.
Stocks have handed back some of this weeks’ gains after President Trump threw cold water on the hopes that all tariffs would be rolled back should phase one of the trade deal be agreed upon. The US president said he has not agreed to scrapping all the tariffs, and this encouraged some mild selling of stocks.
The door was left open to a partial roll back on tariffs, and that’s why the decline in stocks hasn’t been that bad.
Here’s a transcript of president Trump explaining that he’s not agreed to cut China’s tariffs.
He’s speaking to a gaggle of reporters while the rotors of Marine One whirr in the background
They’d like to have a roll back but I’ve not agreed to anything.
China would like to get somewhat of a roll back, not a complete roll back because they know I won’t do it.
“I haven’t agreed to anything,” President Trump said earlier about a rollback on China tariffs. “Frankly, they want to make a deal a lot more than I do.” https://t.co/CrkiFVacCz pic.twitter.com/YRwfB6d6kj
Trump’s trade comments have pushed the markets down a little in Europe and in New York.
Britain’s FTSE 100 is down 0.5%, while German’s DAX (packed with exporters who are vulnerable to trade tensions) has lost 0.4%. On Wall Street, the Dow is around 50 points off last night’s closing high.
Friday’s mixed trade deal signals continued, unsurprisingly, once Trump got involved.
The President said he has not agreed to roll back tariffs, as China claimed on Thursday, going on to claim that Beijing wants the deal ‘much more’ than he does. He also stated that the agreement would be signed in the USA, a detail that no doubt won’t go down well with Xi Jinping and co.
Donald Trump also suggested he and Xi Jinping could sign the Phase One trade deal in a ‘farm county’ such Iowa.
via pool reporters, Trump says China wants a total roll-back of US tariffs, but “I won’t do it.” As for where he and China's Xi might sign a "phase one" trade deal, “it could be Iowa” or other “farm country." (Chile cancelled APEC summit where it would have happened.)
Bloomberg is playing a video clip of president’s Trump’s comments.
He insists that he hasn’t agreed to cut any levies on Chinese imports, but that China “very much” wants the US to roll back tariffs. The two sides are ‘getting on very well’, he says.
Trump: "We're taking in billions of dollars from China. I like our situation very much. But China wants a deal much more than I do."
Trump repeats his usual false claims about how all that tariff revenue (which is paid by Americans) is coming in from China.
Investor and economists across the world are watching Trump’s comments closely - here’s some snap reaction:
Trade Talk Kibuki. And it seems like Peter Navarro’s comments accurately foreshadowed Trumps comment on rollback of US tariffs OT agreed upon. Stocks dump on the current news out of the US on the state of play. Note this is very fluid ! https://t.co/KNsWTDNxYV
Will change his words if Dow drops 1%. #chinatrade
"President Trump tells reporters that he is not yet agreed to roll back existing tariffs!"
rump - Trade deal will be signed in the US i dont think Xi is coming to the US to sign it if there are no rollbacks...
Alexandra von Nahmen of Deutsche Welle has more details of Trump’s comments:
On impeachment, Trump says he’s not concerned about anything. On trade talks with #China: China wants to make a deal “much more than I do.”
On Ukraine he says again that it was about corruption. “We’re giving them hundreds of millions of dollars.” per WH pool
Well, this is unexpected....
TRUMP SAYS THINKING ABOUT ATTENDING RUSSIA'S MAY DAY PARADE
Trump hasn’t given up on getting a trade deal with China, though. He says the agreement will be signed, in the US.
Newsflash: US president Donald Trump is dampening hopes of an imminent US-China trade deal.
Speaking to reporters, Trump says he has not reached an agreement with China to roll back tariffs, although Beijing would like him to.
Travel announcement: “I will be going at some point” to India. pic.twitter.com/suArbFJH8J
Trump now backtracking (again) - says US- China trade deal *will* be signed in the US.
Futures choppy:#DOW 27616 -0.21%#SPX 3079 -0.20%#NASDAQ 8199 -0.27%#RUSSELL 1590 -0.28%#FANG 2807 -0.03% pic.twitter.com/oPKgER9LHX
US consumer sentiment has risen a little, an encouraging sign.
The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index has inched up to 95.7 for November, up from 95.5 in October.
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Nov P: 95.7 (est 95.5; prev 95.5)
- Conditions Nov P: 110.9 (est 113.5; prev 113.2)
- Expectations Nov P: 85.9 (est 85.0; prev 84.2)
- 1-Year Inflation Nov P: 2.5% (prev 2.5%)
- 5-10 Year Inflation Nov P: 2.4% (prev 2.3%)
Making miniature models and tabletop board games continues to be impressively profitable for Games Workshop.
Following on from the Group’s update in September, trading to 3 November 2019 has continued well. Compared to the same period in the prior year, sales and profits are ahead. Royalties receivable are also significantly ahead of the prior year driven by the timing of guarantee income on signing new licences.
Our preliminary estimates of the results for the six months to 1 December 2019 are sales of not less than £140 million and profit before tax of not less than £55 million.
While for others, diversification and sweeping retail format changes are part of the success story, the opposite applies here.
This means that others should be selective about which lessons to learn…the need to identify and consistently exploit the most successful product lines is an obvious one, but building unique experiences around these seems to be one of the biggest draws for customers.”
Just in. French energy firm Total has denied that it’s considering a bid for Belgian materials and technology group Umicore, as flagged earlier.
That dashes hopes that the FT’s Markets Live would sign off with another scoop, on its last outing before retirement.
It could be a rather dull day on Wall Street, as traders catch their breath after a series of record highs.
The futures market is predicting that the tech-focused Nasdaq might dip, with the Dow seen unchanged.
Another UK retailer has hit tough times.
Huddersfield-based Mamas & Papas,which supplies prams, pushchairs, baby products, furniture and maternity wear, is going into a pre-pack administration.
Mamas & Papas gets new parent with ‘pre-pack’ deal https://t.co/fKOzAuToju
Just in: Donald Trump’s economic advisor has said that the White House is prepared to ‘postpone’ tariff hikes on Chinese imports scheduled for next month.
But Peter Navarro also said other tariffs will be saved (ie, maintained), to give leverage in future trade talks.
This morning White House Economic Advisor Peter Navarro says the US is willing to postpone Dec 15th tariffs and that is it for Phase One deal... saving other tariffs to make sure we can negotiate Phase 2 and 3 with China. #China #Trade
*NAVARRO SAYS U.S. WILLING TO POSTPONE DEC.15 CHINA TARIFFS: FOX
Here’s our news story about the latest Crossrail delays, which will put the full cost of the project over £18bn....
Goldbugs are getting crushed this week, as hopes of a trade deal dent demand for safe haven assets.
Gold has fallen almost 1% today, or $10 per ounce, to $1,458/ounce.
You might remember the panic earlier this year when the US government yield curve inverted.
If not, this was the moment when investors accepted a lower interest rate for making long-term loans to the US, rather than short-term ones.
Over in Brussels, shares in Belgian multinational materials technology company Umicore have spiked 7% to a six-month high -- thanks to a takeover rumour.
The FT’s soon-to-be-sorely missed Markets Live has reported that Total are pondering a move on Umicore.
The last Markets Live is in session, and while the rabble are busy reminiscing, Murphy and Hume have turned up with some RAW bid info, of course https://t.co/WfxjHEk3LJ
Come along today at 11am to the last ever Markets Live session on @FTalpha to give it a good send off/viking funeral. ML really was a breakthrough in digital journalism for mainstream media when in lauched in 2006. 1/6
Back in China, car sales have slumped again as consumers rein in spending.
China car sales keep plunging as peak season fails to deliver https://t.co/iU6eW6vrWq
Shareholders 1: Bankers 0....
Economists predict that Japan’s economy has slowed in the last quarter, further justifying another stimulus push.
GDP is estimated to have risen by just 0.2% in July-September (the official data are released next week), down from over 0.3% in April-June.
Japan is also concerned that growth could shrivel once the 2020 Tokyo Olympics are complete.
Mr Suga [cabinet secretary] said there would also be spending to raise productivity in small businesses, agriculture and regional Japan, as well as investment to improve economic competitiveness beyond the Olympics.
There are widespread fears of a slump late next year, once real estate investment timed for the games is complete.
Japan is drawing up a new stimulus programme to boost the economy, and protect the country from natural disasters.
Shinzo Abe instructed his ministers to come up with investment plans to support growth, in the face of a slowing economy and trade tensions.
“I’ve received an instruction from the prime minister to compile a new economic package to guard against the chance overseas risks may hurt Japan’s economy.
To speed up our recovery [from natural disasters], deal with risks from abroad and accelerate productivity growth, we are formulating an economic plan along the lines of a 15-month budget.”
Japan latest country to enact or plan stimulus to try to boost struggling #economy - in its case #fiscal rather than #monetary & focused on boosting public investment & taking advantage of negative or very low interest rates https://t.co/el0bZwAuRy via @financialtimes
Just in: London’s Crossrail has been delayed yet again, and is going to cost even more money.
The latest projections now show a central cost forecast (including risk contingency) of approximately £15,363m, which is £400m more than the funding committed under the Financing Package.
Further modelling scenarios consider even higher levels of risk of £650m more than the funding committed under the Financing Package.
More delays and more money need for London's long-awaited @Crossrail project. TFL says it won't open in 2020 as hoped. Was meant to open last year.
Breaking: @TfL statement to @LSEplc rules out Crossrail opening next year and says costs will increase by a further £400m-£650m. Central section will now open "as soon as practically possible in 2021".
Crossrail will officially be at leas two years late https://t.co/jypoyltI4m
In the UK, Royal Mail is heading to the High Court in an attempt to block a pre-Christmas strike.
The postal operator claims there were irregularities when staff were balloted on industrial action -- including staff opening the ballot papers at work and being encouraged to vote to strike.
European stock markets have also opened in the red, handing back some of their recent gains.
In London, the FTSE 100 has dipped by 0.2% or 15 points. Mining companies are among the fallers, following the drop in Chinese iron ore imports last month.
Yesterday, US equities pushed the record highs again and bonds tumbled, while European stocks firmed around 4-year peaks on hopes and perhaps signs of real progress on trade following remarks, just before the London open, that the US and China were in agreement on rolling back tariffs as part of a managed ceasefire.
There was confusion over exactly what the Chinese official said, but seemed to be clarified by the US saying the phase one deal would include tariff rollback. White House ‘sources’ reports later talked of ‘fierce internal opposition’ with no final decision made.
Shipments of iron ore into China have fallen, in another sign that its economy is weakening.
Trade war jitters pushed markets lower across Asia today.
China’s CSI 300 ended the day down 0.5% at its lowest closing level in a week. South Korea’s KOSPI index, which is also vulnerable to trade tensions, lost 0.4%.
White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham has bolstered hopes of a trade deal soon.
“I cannot get ahead of the talks with China, but we are very, very optimistic that we will reach a deal soon.”
Although poor, today’s trade data from China is better than hoped.
Economist Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says investors had expected a sharper fall in both imports and exports.
#China Sept trade data better than exp.
Exports -0.9%yoy, up from -3.2%yoy (mkt exp was -3.9%)
Imports -6.4%yoy, up from -8.3%yoy (mkt exp was -7.8%)
Exports to US -16%yoy on trade war impact
Better momentum..but just bouncing in same range for last six months or so pic.twitter.com/uHktrNL1Zq
#China trade data improving: Exports "only" -0.9% yoy from -3.2% in Sep , imports -6.4% from -8.5% yoy
Here's the kicker: Exports to the US +4.6% Month On Month in Oct (still neg yoy);"exemptions of some China exports to the US from tariffs in late Sep could be a factor" (GS)
China exports fell -0.9%YoY v expectations of -3.9% and imports fell -6.4% vs expectations of 7.8% so both better than expected but still in CONTRACTION. Trade balance is even higher at 42.8bn due to the declining imports so sheltering the domestic economy via the current account
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The Chinese Communist Party is trying to “re-trade” the agreement, said Stephen Bannon, former White House adviser. He added that rolling back earlier tariffs “goes against the grain” of the original October agreement.
“There’s nothing that Trump hates more” than someone backtracking on a deal, he said.
China's exports declined by 0.9 per cent in October, while imports continued their historically bad slump with a 6.4 per cent decline, reports @fbermingham #China #china #Trade #TradeDeal #TradeWars #tradewar #exports #imports https://t.co/5z59grlmQ9 pic.twitter.com/ilbSSXYTQpContinue reading...